Analysis

Trump cites Democrats’ dangerous rhetoric, but uses it more than they do

Trump and Vance have tied Democrats’ past “threat to democracy” and “fascist” claims to the latest threat to Trump’s safety. But Trump has been deploying this rhetoric a lot more, as Democrats have backed off.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 17, 2024
Analysis

The 2024 election is a tinderbox

Violence and threats of violence, ugly rhetoric, coarse and partisan reactions to violence, and approval of “justified violence” all point to danger ahead.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 16, 2024
Analysis

The staggering reach of Trump’s misinformation — not just on Haitian migrants

A new poll shows lots of Trump backers say they believe his pet-eating claim about Haitians, as well as plenty of other claims. Crucially, middle-of-the-road voters are more discerning.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 16, 2024
Analysis

The limits of Trump’s Springfield, Ohio, demagoguery

Trump is upping the ante on anti-immigrant misinformation, despite the readily apparent real-world dangers. And for what?

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 13, 2024
Analysis

Trump blames ABC’s moderators for his debate dud. Voters disagree.

In a new poll, voters said by double digits the moderators were “fair and unbiased.” Many Republicans object, but past polling shows that’s largely a baked-in response.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 12, 2024
Analysis

Trump won’t take Ukraine’s side. That’s far out of step with voters.

A recent poll showed voters thought he sided with Russia more than Ukraine. He apparently doesn’t care to disabuse them of that notion.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 11, 2024
Analysis

How resounding was Kamala Harris’s debate win? Let’s look at the polls.

Early polling shows Harris won by a historically large margin. And Trump voters acknowledged that and said it could impact their votes.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 11, 2024
Analysis

Trump winning on ‘change’? Not so fast.

A new poll calls into question a popular — but oversimplified — narrative about the role of change in the 2024 election..

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 10, 2024
Analysis

Trump reiterates: There will be blood

With his “bloody” comment about an immigration crackdown, Trump keeps toying with the idea of righteous violence — even after Jan. 6 and an assassination attempt against him.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 9, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s sudden move to re-litigate sexual abuse claims goes off the rails

On the eve of a crucial juncture in the presidential campaign, Trump on Friday decided it was time to extemporize in great, conspiratorial and seemingly ill-advised detail about the women who have accused him of misconduct.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 6, 2024
Analysis

The Walz family political drama pales compared to Trump’s

In an age suddenly full of candidates’ family members opposing them, there’s really no comparison.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 6, 2024
Analysis

The fear factor is now hurting Trump

Significantly more swing-state voters view Trump as a “threat to the country” than Harris. It wasn’t always thus.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 4, 2024
Analysis

Biden is suddenly seeing his best polls in years

Precisely why is a valid question, and there are a number of possibilities. But if it holds up, it could undercut a key Trump campaign strategy.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 3, 2024
Analysis

The 2 key states that could decide the 2024 election

Georgia and Pennsylvania are emerging as the central battlegrounds, for now. A look at the electoral college math shows why.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 3, 2024
Analysis

3 takeaways from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s first major interview

Harris addressed her changed positions obliquely and walked a very fine line on trying to run as a “change” candidate.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 29, 2024
Analysis

RFK Jr. is stuck on 3 swing-state ballots. That’s a headache for Trump.

North Carolina joins Michigan and Wisconsin in saying they can’t remove Kennedy’s name — and thickening the 2024 plot.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 29, 2024
Analysis

Democratic enthusiasm is at Obama 2008 levels. Here’s why.

In fact, polls suggest Democrats might even be more “fired up” and “ready to go” vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 29, 2024
Analysis

Did Trump’s campaign break the law at Arlington National Cemetery?

The cemetery and some experts suggest it was; here’s what Trump did, and what the law says.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 28, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s cemetery clash ups the ante on politicizing military, memorials

Trump has flouted the dividing line between politics and the military before. Even in that context, though, this is different.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 28, 2024
Analysis

Why Biden isn’t dragging down Harris

The GOP is apoplectic that Biden’s liabilities on the border, the economy and the Afghanistan withdrawal aren’t hurting her more. It might be because strong majorities of Americans don’t think she played a central role.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 27, 2024